Houses | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area | Median Value | Growth | Rent | Sales | Predictions | ||||||||
| ACT | $533,500 | 7.43% | 4.09% | 0.48% | -0.77% | 4.69% | $480 | 6.67% | 4,980 | 4,986 | -0.12% | 0.88% | 2.06% |
| Adelaide | $406,000 | NULL | -0.02% | -1.02% | -0.68% | 4.31% | $335 | 4.69% | 20,497 | 20,024 | 2.36% | -0.10% | 1.27% |
| SA Country | $270,000 | NULL | 4.15% | 3.72% | 1.66% | 4.83% | $250 | 4.17% | 8,594 | 7,384 | 16.39% | -0.71% | 0.77% |
| Brisbane | $442,500 | 7.00% | -4.64% | -2.11% | -1.13% | 4.48% | $380 | 1.33% | 33,351 | 40,528 | -17.71% | 4.93% | 4.79% |
| QLD Country | $370,000 | 6.59% | -2.70% | -2.09% | -0.63% | 5.22% | $370 | 2.78% | 33,430 | 37,773 | -11.50% | 4.59% | 4.38% |
| Darwin | $506,500 | NULL | -1.39% | -2.21% | -0.25% | 5.25% | $510 | -3.77% | 1,174 | 1,793 | -34.52% | 5.38% | 5.89% |
| Northern Territory | $471,500 | NULL | -0.56% | -2.26% | -0.75% | 5.53% | $500 | 0.00% | 1,730 | 2,503 | -30.88% | 4.41% | 5.57% |
| Hobart | $380,500 | NULL | 1.93% | 0.20% | -2.20% | 4.80% | $350 | 2.94% | 2,107 | 2,301 | -8.43% | 5.20% | NULL |
| TAS Country | $266,000 | NULL | -2.60% | -3.15% | -2.35% | 5.10% | $260 | 4.00% | 4,194 | 4,346 | -3.50% | 5.40% | NULL |
| Melbourne | $599,500 | 7.85% | 3.22% | 1.02% | -0.20% | 3.31% | $380 | 2.70% | 51,293 | 43,898 | 16.85% | 2.54% | 3.80% |
| VIC Country | $333,500 | 6.61% | 8.19% | 4.45% | 1.81% | 4.69% | $300 | 7.14% | 42,835 | 41,317 | 3.67% | 1.48% | 3.65% |
| Perth | $481,500 | 9.02% | -0.43% | 0.23% | -0.82% | 4.12% | $380 | 0.00% | 21,335 | 26,523 | -19.56% | 6.58% | 6.14% |
| WA Country | $349,000 | 8.36% | -3.92% | -1.84% | -1.50% | 4.94% | $330 | 6.45% | 4,964 | 6,231 | -20.33% | 7.18% | 6.88% |
| Sydney | $667,500 | 6.86% | 2.52% | -0.58% | -0.32% | 4.06% | $520 | 4.00% | 38,614 | 45,053 | -14.29% | 4.76% | 5.67% |
| NSW Country | $341,000 | 6.73% | 1.81% | -0.15% | -0.79% | 5.20% | $340 | 9.68% | 36,750 | 46,851 | -21.56% | 4.24% | 5.87% |
| Australia | $443,500 | NULL | 1.77% | 1.02% | 0.44% | 4.35% | $370 | 2.78% | 304,674 | 329,718 | -7.60% | 3.95% | NULL |
- You will note from the above that there was no city in Australia where housing values advanced in the month of April. In fact, there were only two markets that presented growth – SA Country and Victoria Country.
- The magnitude of the corrections was not extreme and is not a cause for alarm at this stage. However, it is very unusual to see the total market in a correction phase and it points to a recent event that has unsettled the market. In a situation like this, given other weak economic indicators, considerable care will need to be exercised by the Reserve Bank in regards to interest rates until the market regains some level of confidence. To me, this points to a situation where any upward movement in interest rates is unlikely in the short term.
- Hobart suffered most in April, with a reduction in market value of 2.2 per cent. However, we should note that this is a very small market and, as a consequence, it will be more susceptible to adjustment than others.
- Sales volumes are declining and the highest reduction in percentage sales was in Darwin. Again, this is a small market so small adjustments by numbers can distort the percentage picture.
- Melbourne, while starting to adjust, is still presenting relatively strongly in terms of sales volumes. For the year, sales activity is still in positive territory.
- In all areas of Australia other than in Darwin, which presents the highest rental yield in Australia, weekly housing rentals are increasing.
- Our calculations indicate Melbourne has the potential to have surplus housing stock. This is evidencing itself in the weekly rental position, which is providing the lowest rental yield in Australia.
- Adelaide and to a lesser extent Canberra, on our numbers, have a surplus stock position and the predictions are reflecting such a situation. It is presenting as if these markets are likely to be more stagnant over the next five years than any others in Australia.
- Melbourne is yet to enter a correction phase based on the predictions so care in this market needs to be exercised.
- All other housing markets will be approaching a turning point or will have passed the bottom of the cycle. While there may be a few more months of slight correction these markets are worth watching for buying opportunities.
Units | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area | Median Value | Growth | Rent | Sales | Predictions | ||||||||
| ACT | $429,000 | 7.68% | 4.13% | 0.79% | 2.54% | 5.26% | $435 | 6.10% | 2,856 | 3,083 | -7.36% | -0.59% | 0.93% |
| Adelaide | $319,500 | NULL | 2.21% | 1.22% | 0.24% | 4.66% | $285 | 5.56% | 4,966 | 5,466 | -9.15% | -0.97% | 0.61% |
| SA Country | $235,500 | NULL | 3.32% | -0.94% | 0.26% | 4.38% | $200 | 11.11% | 552 | 606 | -8.91% | -1.59% | 0.11% |
| Brisbane | $364,000 | 6.26% | -1.13% | -0.62% | 0.62% | 5.09% | $355 | 1.43% | 11,974 | 14,295 | -16.24% | 1.21% | 2.10% |
| QLD Country | $327,000 | 5.52% | -6.39% | -1.65% | -0.52% | 5.02% | $315 | 5.00% | 12,735 | 16,556 | -23.08% | 2.30% | 1.94% |
| Darwin | $402,500 | NULL | -1.51% | -3.64% | -1.70% | 5.51% | $425 | -1.16% | 835 | 1,224 | -31.78% | 4.06% | 5.17% |
| Northern Territory | $395,000 | NULL | 1.55% | -2.32% | -0.48% | 5.28% | $400 | -4.76% | 1,055 | 1,531 | -31.09% | 3.16% | 4.94% |
| Hobart | $284,000 | NULL | 0.44% | -0.96% | 0.89% | 4.96% | $270 | 3.85% | 858 | 765 | 12.16% | 4.67% | NULL |
| TAS Country | $218,000 | NULL | 1.16% | -1.76% | 1.88% | 5.02% | $210 | 5.00% | 791 | 611 | 29.46% | 4.04% | NULL |
| Melbourne | $457,000 | 7.54% | 2.66% | 1.56% | 0.06% | 4.00% | $350 | 0.00% | 30,396 | 29,639 | 2.55% | 3.20% | 4.69% |
| VIC Country | $262,500 | 6.14% | 6.32% | 0.37% | 1.56% | 4.97% | $250 | 8.70% | 6,821 | 7,261 | -6.06% | 0.66% | 2.82% |
| Perth | $389,500 | 7.58% | -4.42% | -2.92% | -0.94% | 4.82% | $360 | 0.00% | 5,100 | 6,355 | -19.75% | 0.71% | 1.78% |
| WA Country | $298,000 | 6.34% | -6.21% | -0.86% | -0.50% | 5.21% | $300 | 3.45% | 463 | 557 | -16.88% | 1.80% | 1.62% |
| Sydney | $483,000 | 6.25% | 5.25% | 1.77% | 0.68% | 4.86% | $450 | 4.65% | 40,312 | 48,483 | -16.85% | 2.15% | 4.10% |
| NSW Country | $303,500 | 5.40% | 0.85% | -0.08% | -0.99% | 4.82% | $280 | 7.69% | 11,137 | 13,143 | -15.26% | 0.47% | 4.13% |
| Australia | $402,000 | NULL | 2.84% | 1.76% | 0.01% | 4.61% | $355 | 1.43% | 130,016 | 148,351 | -12.36% | 2.33% | NULL |
- Affordability issues will make this market less susceptible to adjustment. That is, it is likely that there will be a higher level of demand.
- Capital price affordability and investor activity will be helping the demand level and making this market less susceptible to price adjustment.
- The growth for the last three months across Australia was a respectable 1.76 per cent, however it was all but zero for the month of April.
- Weekly rentals are increasing and rental yields are becoming respectable, with close to 5 per cent or a little more being the norm. This means that there will again be positively geared property investment opportunities in various parts of Australia.
- Our predictions are low as they are based on the history of units generally underperforming to houses. As a consequence, the unit predictions should be seen as a minimum guide only.
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